Full
Text forthcoming Games and Economic Behavior
Drew Fudenberg and David K. Levine
March 17, 1995
revised: December 7, 1996
Abstract: A forecaster is said to be calibrated if, in the asymptotic limit, the empirical frequencies in periods where each particular probability distribution is forecast exactly match the forecast probabilities. Recently, Foster and Vohra have constructed random strategies that are approximately calibrated to any desired degree. Their construction which relies on a series of approximations is somewhat complicated. The purpose of this note is to show that a more straightforward construction serves the same purpose.